美元指数（DXY）在经历了波动剧烈的8月之后，目前展现出筑底迹象。此前因市场对7月FOMC会议解读偏鸽所引发的大量美元对冲行为正逐步退潮。虽然日元（JPY）一度显著升值，短暂影响了美元的整体动能，但美元兑欧元（EUR）、加元（CAD）及墨西哥比索（MXN）等主要货币已趋于稳定。随着即将公布的经济数据，如预期维持在54.1的ISM服务业指数，以及美联储维持紧缩政策的立场，策略师正评估美元是否会进入震荡区间，或可能重启上行趋势。
FOMC后美元对冲需求降温，美联储加息预期支撑资金回流
BNY的Geoff Yu指出，因市场对7月FOMC会议解读偏鸽所引发的美元对冲浪潮已告一段落。随着投资者减少对冲头寸，并逐渐适应美联储继续收紧货币政策的预期，美元在主要贸易伙伴货币面前正逐步企稳。
"Our flows are showing the first signs of dollar stabilization after a difficult August... The Fed’s signal that it’s willing to continue rate hikes removes the main driver for dollar sales in early August... We expect dollar holdings to stabilize around current levels now that Fed expectations have adjusted. There are idiosyncratic reasons for markets to avoid adding to MXN, CAD and EUR aggressively..."
前端利率与ISM数据预期支撑美元上行动能
ING的Francesco Pesole、Frantisek Taborsky与Chris Turner维持对美元的乐观看法，他们认为前端利率上升及能源价格高企将继续利好美元。尽管日元波动带来短期扰动，但美国服务业活动仍具韧性，使美联储转向鸽派的可能性极低。
"We retain a preference for the upside in the dollar, as front-end rates and higher energy prices both point up... Today, the ISM services report is in focus, and expected to flatten at 54.1. The bar to drive the Fed away from a September hike looks fairly high, especially for second-tier data."
综合两家机构观点，美元正从8月的大幅抛售阶段，逐步过渡至更为平衡的双向波动环境。BNY预测，除非实际利率优势和美国资产需求明显回升，否则美元持仓将维持在当前水平附近震荡；而ING则维持对美元的看多立场，认为强劲的基本面与坚挺的前端收益率将继续支撑美元需求，尤其在美联储下一次会议前。
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
